Forex News

EUR/USD Go Back to 1,18 Waiting for ECB October Meeting


The first important market mover of the outgoing week was Eurozone trade balance data. This figure disappointed analysts’ expectations in August: the surplus has gone from € 23,2 billion in the previous survey to € 16,1 billion. Analysts had expected a slight improvement in the trade balance of 23,3 billion euros, but this was not the case.

The data on Inflation has also come from the Eurozone, which confirmed all analysts’ expectations in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0,4%, while in the previous survey they had increased by 0,3%. On an annual basis, however, Eurozone inflation has confirmed both the previous figure and the expectations at + 1,5%.

The main consumer price index, then, grew by 0,4% on a monthly basis and by 1,1% on an annual basis. Again, all analysts’ expectations have been confirmed.

The United Kingdom also published the consumer price index for the month of September. UK annual inflation increased by 3%, against 2,9% of the previous survey. The analyst’s forecast predicted an increase of 3%. On a monthly basis, inflation grew by 0,3%, confirming analysts’ forecasts.

UK unemployment, on the other hand, remained stable, while average wages in August surprised the market expectations. Wage data including bonuses marked a + 2,2%, which revised the expectations and the previous figure, both to 2,1%.

British average salaries net of bonuses went up by 2,1%. This is against 2% of the consensus and 2,2% of the previous survey. The August unemployment rate, then, stood at 4,3% and confirmed both expectations and the previous figure. Unemployment subsidies for the month of September showed 1,7 thousand more units.

Speaking of unemployment benefits, the initial requests for unemployment benefits from the United States surprised the analysts. The market mover has observed 222.000 units that collide with the 240.000 expected and 244.000 of the previous survey.

Given the scarcity of data on the calendar during the week, EUR/USD managed to get back above the threshold of 1,18 traveling upward. The technical levels to be monitored will be: on the bullish side, the breakdown of the simple mobile average of 55 days (at 1,1840); on the bearish side, the first support is the one in the area of 1,1730.

The economic calendar will be full of important market movers for the incoming week.

Surely, the meeting of the European Central Bank in October for the interest rate decision will be the main protagonist. The event is awaited as much as feared for Mario Draghi indication on Quantitative Easing. What will happen after its expiration date in December 2017?

The Canadian Central Bank will also have to make the same decision on interest rates.

In addition to these market movers there will be others not only regarding monetary policy, but above all macroeconomics.

The Eurozone will publish the datas on consumer confidence and manufacturing, composite and services PMI.

The United Kingdom will release the data on its GDP.

Even the United States GDP will provide new clues about the direction that the US intends to follow with some assured movement of the EUR / USD.

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