For more than two weeks we only heard about Brexit. From the day of the referendum it seems that the only market movers noteworthy are only the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union.
Given that the biggest movements in the major markets are due to Brexit, as well as the already high volatility, we would like to try to focus on the economic calendar of this week.
Leaving aside the Brexit, here the major market movers which have influenced the stock markets this week.
Better than expected results but still a source of concern is the inflation in the euro area. The production price index of June, in the preliminary version, shows an annual change of + 0.1% against the result of the previous month at -0.1%.
The core version, which excludes from the calculation the prices of the most volatile sectors, marks a more than expected rise at + 0.9% during last year, against the previous result and market forecasts at + 0.8%.
The unemployment rate is steady. In May, the unemployment rate of the Eruozone remains substantially to 10.1%, a figure slightly better than the result of April (10.2%).
The good news on the manufacturing sector continue: the aggregate index for the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone shows a growth above expectations. In June, the manufacturing PMI index showed a rise to 52.8, compared with the previous result to 52.6.
Let’s move now to the United States. Earlier this week, we were published data on personal income and expenditure in the US.
Personal income in the United States in May falls below expectations, while consumer spending is stable, but slow. Personal income fell to + 0.2%, down from the previous result at + 0.5%. Personal spending confirms expectations at + 0.4%, sharply down from 1.1% the previous month.
Afterwards it was the time of the manufacturing PMI index calculated from the ISM for the month of June. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 last month, compared with the previous result to 51.3.
The manufacturing PMI effective, the one based on the information given by the directors of the purchase manufacturing sector, fell to 51.3, slightly below the previous figure.
Moving to South America, Venezuela is facing the worst crisis in its history. It is difficult to pinpoint when things started to go from bad to worse, but the country is on the brink of collapse and default.
No sector seems to escape from the crisis. By the serious social situation, to the big economic crisis, until the political crisis: everything seems to exacerbate more and more a country already weak.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela has the lowest growth rate and the worst rate of inflation around the world – both respectively to -8% and 482%.
The unemployment rate is instead 17% but expectations for the coming years speak of an increase up to 30%.
Foreign exchange reserves fell to 12 billion dollars, the lowest level since 2003, while the value of the currency – the Bolivar – has fallen dramatically.
After all this news, you are still thinking about Brexit, aren’t you?