Last week began with the preliminary data on consumer confidence in the Euro zone for the month of February and it was not encouraging.
The data showed a deterioration in confidence from – 4,8 to – 6,2. Totally disregarded analysts’ forecasts of – 4,9.
After this, it was the time of the data on inflation for the month of January. On an annual basis it rose by 1,8%, exactly as in the previous survey and just as expected by analysts.
On a monthly basis, the Eurozone inflation fell by 0,8%, reflecting again not only expectations but also the data of the previous survey.
The main index of consumer prices on an annual basis, has confirmed expectations rising by 0,9% on a monthly basis, and the Eurozone core inflation showed a strong 1,7%, while in the previous survey the figure was + 0,4%.
As for the manufacturing PMI, it rises from 55,2 to 55,5. The composite PMI, however, fell from 54,4 in the previous survey to 56,0 than today. Finally, the index of Eurozone services PMI, rose from 53,7 to 55,6.
Same market mover was released also for United States, where the manufacturing PMI dropped from 55 to 54,3. Analysts had forecast a rise to 55,3 and expectations were therefore totally disappointed.
The services PMI, however, fell from 55,6 in the previous survey to 53,9. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 55,8. The composite PMI rose from 55,8 to 54,3 share.
Finally, was released the data on non-farm payrolls in the USA. The data fell by 2.060 to 2.077 million jobless claims. Analysts had forecast a slight decline requests to 2.068.000.
What was published did not move by no means EUR / USD. After a descent at the beginning of the week, the EUR / USD has paused the selloff showing uncertainty.
The greenback was halted on Thursday afternoon because of the comments of the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who expressed concern about the high levels of debt and specified that Trump’s new administration policies will have a limited impact on economy during 2017.
Technical analysis showed a limited upside potential, the support levels on the exchange rate were at 1,0520-1,0470-1,0440, while the first resistance on the cross were at 1,0590-1,0635-1,0660.
Next week the Forex market will continue to be moved by Donald Trump promises before the US Congress, whose words promise to move the dollar and the currency pairs where the greenback is the main subject. International investors will be looking for more details on the upcoming tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending.
Even the Federal Reserve will play its part, when President Janet Yellen will hold a public speech on Friday, she may indicate definitely if an increase in rates in March is still a possibility on the table.
In terms of the economic calendar, the United States will rule again with the revision of fourth-quarter GDP.
The macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom (PMI manufacturing, services and construction indices) will give an indication of the current economy scenario after Brexit.
Finally, pending the Eurozone inflation to find out when the European Central Bank might be forced to reduce its stimulus program.