The new year has already started with the economic calendar at full speed and the euro has
already started to gain by raising the EUR / USD exchange rate.
All this happened thanks to the publication of the minutes of European Central Bank’s last meeting
whose tones have amazed the investors.
In fact, the "hawkish" tone used by the bank, which revealed its intention to modify its Forward
Guidance during the first few months of the year, surprised the market positively.
The ECB therefore seems ready to adapt its moves to improve the growth prospects of the
And this is where the euro appreciated so much that the exchange rate with the US dollar rose
above the threshold of $1,20 from $1,193.
The bond was also deeply affected by the minutes, decreasing the Btp-Bund spread by more than
6 points percentage and again below the 150 basis point threshold.
The euro dollar exchange also gained thanks to the news from Germany. The agreement on the
birth of a Great Coalition made the euro celebrate the umpteenth victory of the European Union's
compactness. EURUSD, which had already returned to 1,20 thanks to ECB minutes, has risen
Another good news coming from the Eurozone is about the unemployment rate. November
unemployment rate surprised analysts' expectations, rising from 8,8% in the previous survey to
This data also confirms the increasing industrial production of the Old Continent. The industrial
production of the Eurozone on a monthly basis is up 1%, while in the previous survey it had
increased by 0,4%.
On an annual basis, on the other hand, the Eurozone's industrial production recorded a + 3,2%,
against analysts' forecasts of + 3% and against the figure of the previous data of + 3,9%.
In addition to the ECB minutes, the most important figure of the week concerned US inflation.
December's US inflation disappointed all market expectations. The data on a monthly basis (0,1%)
has diverged from both the previous release of + 0,4% and the analysts forecast at + 0,2%.
On an annual basis, however, inflation rose by 2,1%, but not in the previous survey at + 2,2%.
Core inflation recorded a + 0,3% on a monthly basis and a + 1,8% on an annual basis, compared
to + 0,1% and + 1,7% of the previous data.
In recent months, the United States oil stocks has become a very important market mover.
Oil inventories are falling compared to the previous data, surprising the analysts. In the previous
release, oil stocks had declined by 7.419 million barrels, so the contraction is equal to 4.988 million
barrels. Analysts had expected a further contraction of 3.819 million barrels.
US inflation has been discovered, now it is up to Eurozone which inflation will be the market mover
protagonist of the next week from the 15 th to the 19 th of January.
Italy, Germany and the entire Eurozone will announce the trend of their consumer prices,
especially in view of the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank at the end of the
Other market movers will include: unemployment benefits requests and oil stocks in the United
States and China's GDP.