As we said in the previous article, this week would be that of PMI data. Here those of the two major Western economies: the United States and the Eurozone.
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Preliminary data on manufacturing, composite and services indices in June for the United States showed that: Manufacturing PMI, which in the previous survey had reached 52,7, marked this week a 52,1; Services PMI has changed from 53,6 to 53,0; Composite PMI fell from 53,9 in the previous survey to 53,0.
In the Eurozone, the manufacturing sector continues to grow, as reported by the preliminary version of the report published on the Economic Calendar.
Markit’s PMI index rose to 57,3, above analysts’ expectations at 56,8, up from the final figure of the previous month at 57,0.
Service PMI dropped significantly from 56,3 to 54,7, against the consensus at 56,2.
The composite version has dropped from 56,8 to 55,7.
As for the commodities, we are back to talk about oil and gold.
The historic OPEC agreement is not having the hoped-for effects on the listing and last week it was not the best for the oil price that collapsed below $45 per barrel.
Oil Price Today
At the end of the first six months of 2017, the awareness is that it was the worst first quarter since 1997 for crude oil quotations.
After collapsing to below $45, the oil price attempted a rebound but did not allow him to record a remarkable performance. Despite the listing being back to breathe, Brent remained at $45 and Wti on 42.
The gold price, however, signaled the second consecutive rising session on Thursday and continued to move in positive territory, gaining 0,51% at 1.256,57.
Gold Price Today
The collapse of oil prices supported the gold price. The gold price recovered part of the downturn of the past few weeks, returning above the resistance (now support) at 1.250.
Crude oil crash could also have significant repercussions on US inflation, whose weakness would force the Federal Reserve to postpone the increase of interest rates by the end of the year. This possibility would be favorable for a gold price recovery.
Next week, as well as the last of June and of the second quarter of 2017, the Economic Calendar will focus on Asia and inflation.
We assume strong volatility in the currency market, in response to US and UK GDP revisions, Eurozone inflation and durable goods orders in the United States.
Japan plans to publish the data on inflation, labor market and industry in the early hours of Friday, data that could respond to doubts about the Asian giant health, still stuck in a context of rates in negative territory and monetary stimulus through the Quantitative Easing.
Trader’s attention will be also on US durable goods orders after the crash reported last month, whereas US and UK GDP revisions for the first quarter 2017 should not be surprising.
As for inflation data, in addition to Japan, it is expected also for the Eurozone and Switzerland, while confidence indexes in European economy will help us to understand how much is perceived the recent improvement in Eurozone conditions.
With the arrival of summer, events of particular importance on the Economic Calendar are starting to miss. Volumes begin to fall and the unexpected volatily will be risky for short-term speculation.