The week after Donald Trump election as the new President of the United States has been a succession of positive and negative comments about his possible actions, while some Americans protesting against his taking office on the 20th of January, 2017.
The market has softened this news and after a momentary confusion has returned to move as usual.
The US dollar continued however to benefit from this news, especially after the publication of US macro data and Janet Yellen’s speech. The Dollar index has picked the maximum of 15 years.
These data showed a very good recovery in the US economy. The consumer price growth at 0.1% on a monthly basis and at 2.1% on an annual basis (both in line with expectations).
Requests for unemployment benefits amounted to 235 thousand, well below the 257 thousand expected by analysts.
There was a surprise instead of building permits issued in October (1.229 million), higher than the 1.198 million expected, while building permits rose by 0.3% compared to the expected reduction of 2.9%.
Confidence in the US economy was also confirmed on the weekend by the words of Janet Yellen about a rise in interest rates which could happen “relatively soon” if the US economy continues to move at this pace. His words are a clear signal of a possible restrictive intervention that could arrive in the December Federal Reserve meeting.
A stronger dollar corresponds to a suffering for the EUR / USD. Euro-dollar exchange rate has returned to 1.06 area touching new annual lows, falling from its session highs above 1.07.
Unlike United States inflation, the Eurozone inflation rose both on a monthly basis (+0,2), albeit to a lesser extent compared to the previous survey (+0,4) and on an annual basis (+0,5).
The main index of consumer prices on an annual basis increased by 0.8%, as in the previous survey, and the general consumer price index on a monthly basis has marked an increase of 0.1%.
With the weekend arrived also the publication of the minutes of the October 20, 2016 meeting of the ECB: the Governing Council headed by Mario Draghi month ago underlined the importance of the next meeting scheduled for December the 8th to talk about the effects of Eurozone monetary stimulus in EU economy.
Regarding the Quantitative Easing program, the ECB, according to the latest reports, noticed that is progressing well despite the recent concern about the shortage of purchasable assets.
The ECB is fully determined to confirm the purchase of assets in line with past decisions already announced about the characteristics of the Quantitative Easing program.
Despite the amount of market movers that have filled the economic calendar of the United Kingdom and the United States in the last three days, the pound-dollar exchange is in equilibrium between 1.24 and 1.25.
USD / JPY went from 101 to a maximum of 111, a benefit out of scale for a currency exchange in Forex.
It is not yet clear how much the dollar-yen exchange rate will rise before reaching a new equilibrium level, but it has gained + 10% in 9 days.
The maximum recorded in 2016 are still very far (121), but the dollar-yen was the star of this year because of its excellent bearish performance, the most profitable among the major changes and now it is surprising even in the opposite direction.