The first half of 2016 is finally ended and it is the time to analyze the progress of currency exchange rates of Forex until now.
The first half had as a pinnacle the Brexit, but the overall results showed that the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union would not be so revolutionary to the trend that exchange rates had in the first three months of the year.
In this article we will understand what are the major currency exchange rates that showed the best performance (negative and positive).
In the first three months of 2016 the US dollar-yen, US dollar-Canadian dollar and Euro-Sterling were the three couples who have reached higher altitudes, the first two downward and the third upward.
USD/JPY has in fact recorded a -7.2% from January, same rate of USD/CAD, while EUR/GBP built the largest gap with a + 7.5%.
Between them there are all the other major changes, but it was the dollar that has made the fate of every currencies.
The US dollar has confirmed its position? The currency pairs mentioned above have continued with the same trend, or there has been a sea change? Traders have been focused on the most profitable Forex exchange rates on the last six months?
The general rule is that the bearish bets have been generally more successful. The US dollar-yen exchange rate ranks the first place after recording a substantial -17.1% in the first six months of the year.
The reputation as a safe haven of the yen combined with high volatility in the markets has led to a continued appreciation of the Japanese currency. This, combined with a not-so-happy period for the US dollar, has led USD/JPY to record the largest decline among the major pairs of the Forex.
Following, there is euro-yen with a -14.5%. The euro managed to do better than the US dollar against the Japanese currency, but it is clear that the thrust of yen appreciation was the winner among all the exchange rates, even more than the historical decline experienced by sterling-dollar, on the third step of the podium.
The bets upward lead the euro-sterling exchange with +12%, the most satisfying of the major Forex exchange rates. The worst period of history lived by the pound and the positive trend that euro has undertaken since the end of last year were the base of the half-year rise of EUR/GBP.
Follows with a large detachment the New Zealand dollar-US dollar exchange rate, with the NZD that has gained +4.1% against the most important currency in the world.
The euro-dollar, however, despite the market volatility and recent events, has recorded only +2.2%
Everyone would think that the basis of these results is the Brexit. But it is not like this.
Despite the shock of the event of last week that caused enormous changes in the currency market, it is interesting to note that the trends which were already imposed in the first three months of the year are those who today continue to be the most relevant.
In general this analysis shows that it was a negative 2016 for the US dollar until now. The words of Janet Yellen and the increasingly cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve were the most significant factors, even more than Brexit.
The one who confirmed his status quo is the yen that as currency refuge attracts investors in exchange for percentages higher than those of the other currencies gain.